The medium, or reference scenario, is considered most likely to occur if recent trends continue. As part of deriving the assumptions to apply in the updated projections, preliminary data on mortality and migration were analyzed to incorporate potential short-term impacts related to the COVID-19 pandemic on the demographic components. 978-1-4868-6233-7 HTML Ontario Population Projections Update, 2021-2046. Ontario Demographic Quarterly: First Quarter Highlights, Ontario Demographic Quarterly: Second Quarter Highlights, Ontario Demographic Quarterly: Third Quarter Highlights, Ontario Demographic Quarterly: Fourth Quarter Highlights. The number of seniors aged 65 and over is projected to almost double from about 2.6 million, or 17.6 per cent of population in 2020, to almost 4.5 million, or 22.2 per cent, by 2046. These shares evolve throughout the projection period following established trends. The year-to-year change in the total number of NPRs is accounted for as a component of population growth in the projections. The projected number of deaths each year is obtained by applying projected age-specific mortality rates to population cohorts of corresponding ages. "Population estimate of Ontario Canada in 2022, by age and sex." This chart shows the historical net interprovincial migration gain in Ontario from 1971 to 2021 and projections under three scenarios to 2046. For other regions such as Central Ontario, the continuation of migration gains from other parts of the province will be a key source of population increase. In the low-growth scenario, the annual rate of population growth is projected to decline over time, from around 1.0 percent over the next few years to 0.7 percent by 204546. [31], Ontario's interprovincial migration rate have shifted over the years. Other data access options: Developers. Census divisions where population is projected to increase by over 40% include: Middlesex, Oxford, Wellington, Dufferin, Simcoe, Waterloo, Halton, Peel, Ottawa. Based on the latest information and despite the high level of uncertainty, assumptions have been made to include the arrival of 20,000 CUAET permit holders in Ontario by July1, 2022, with an additional 30,000 during 2022-23. [4] The tables includes languages that were selected by at least 0.99 per cent of respondents. This line chart shows the pace of annual growth of population age groups 0-14, 15-64 and 65+ in Ontario from 1971 to 2046. This area chart shows the annual contribution of natural increase and net migration to Ontarios population growth from 1971 to 2046. Prince Edward is projected to have less than 50 percent of its population aged 1564 by 2046. The age pyramid opposite shows the aging of Canada's population in recent decades by comparing the age-sex structure of the population on July 1 in 1998 and 2018. By 2046, life expectancy is projected to reach 84.8 years for males and 87.9 years for females. Census divisions with between 35% and 50% projected growth in number of seniors over 2021-2046 include: Greater Sudbury, Parry Sound, Chatham-Kent, Huron, Bruce, Haliburton, Peterborough, Northumberland, Renfrew, Lennox & Addington, Frontenac, Leeds & Grenville, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry. This line chart shows the estimated total population of Ontario from 1971 to 2021, and the projection to 2046 for the three scenarios (reference, high and low). However, by 2046 the share of children in every region is projected to be slightly lower than it is today. The number of Ontarians aged 1564 is projected to increase from 9.9 million in 2021 to 12.9 million by 2046. Determining assumptions for this component is complicated by the significant annual fluctuations in this group. Demographics of Ontario - Wikipedia What is the largest age group in Canada? It is assumed that other factors, such as continued progress in fighting cancer, will drive increases in the average lifespan at a gradual pace over the projection period. It is home to most populated city in Canada, Toronto. Census Profile, 2021 Census of Population - Statistics Canada If you are an admin, please authenticate by logging in again. I partie 3. Number of persons in the labour force (employment and unemployment), unemployment rate, participation rate and employment rate by age group and sex. The four census divisions of the suburban GTA are projected to add a total of almost 1.9 million people over the period. Hamilton (City, Canada) - Population Statistics, Charts, Map and Location PDF Population Demographics - City of Toronto The left side of the chart displays the male population, while the right side of the chart displays the female population. A range above and below the reference scenario of 7,500 in 202324, and 5,000 over the rest of the projection period is set. Census Profile, 2016 Census - Ontario [Province] and Canada [Country] 5.4%, were visible minorities.[21]. An analysis of the ratio of actual-to-expected deaths for each census division did not reveal a consistent pattern or movement toward a convergence or divergence among regions over time. Over the period from 1971 to 2015, Ontario was the province who experience the second lowest levels of interprovincial in-migration and out-migration, second only to Quebec.[39]. Read the Ontario population projections report. [citation needed], The 2021 census reported that immigrants (individuals born outside Canada) comprise 4,206,585 persons or 30.0percent of the total population of Ontario. Language links are at the top of the page across from the title. The growth of Ontarios population has been affected by the. Births are also projected to increase over the projection period, fuelled in the short term by the passage of the baby boom echo (children of baby boomers) through peak fertility years, and subsequently by continued population growth driven by young immigrants. Interprovincial migration is a component of population growth that fluctuates significantly from year to year. This chart shows historical annual net gains in non-permanent residents in Ontario from 1971 to 2021 and projections under three scenarios to 2046. In 2021, there were over 1.46 million females 65 years of age and over in Ontario. Net migration levels to Ontario have averaged about 118,000 per year in the past decade, with a low of 47,000 in 201415 and a high of 204,000 in 201718. The childrens share of population is projected to decrease initially from 15.3 percent in 2021 to 14.6 percent by 2031, followed by a slow increase to 14.9 percent by 2046. The average age has increased by 4.2 years since 2001, when it was 37.5 years. This was then compared to the actual annual number of deaths for each census division over this period to create ratios of actual-to-expected number of deaths. Demographics Number of recent immigrants in Ontario 2000-2022 Published by Statista Research Department , Nov 16, 2022 This statistic shows the number of recent immigrants in Ontario from. The latest update uses the 2020 population estimates from Statistics Canada (released in February 2021 and based on the 2016 Census) as a base and includes: The report features highlights of the results and a description of the projections methodology and the assumptions used for each demographic component. The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to rise from 1.2 million in 2021 to almost 2.7 million by 2046. The following sections discuss assumptions and methodology for the components of net migration, including immigration, emigration, non-permanent residents, interprovincial migration and intraprovincial migration. However, there are options for the respondent to identify the country alone. Immigration levels in Canada are determined by federal government policy. While the share of population aged 1564 is projected to decrease in every census division of the province, the number of people in this age group is projected to increase in 41 of the 49 census divisions. The median age for women climbs from 42.0 to 43.2 years over the projection period, while for men it is projected to increase from 39.4 to 40.9 years. The distribution pattern is assumed to remain constant over the projection period. Subsequently, net migration is projected to increase gradually, reaching 192,000 by 204546. This chart shows historical annual growth rates of Ontarios population as bars from 1971 to 2021, and projected growth rates as lines for the three scenarios (reference, high and low). 1996 2006 2016 % of the population; 0 to 17 years: 24.3: 21.5: 19.3: 18 to 24 years: 9.4 . All other Eastern Ontario census divisions are also projected to grow, but below the provincial average, with growth ranging from 12.2 percent in Prince Edward to 36.4 percent in Lanark. English, French, and non-official language, This page was last edited on 16 April 2023, at 07:33. However, life expectancy is assumed to rise at a slower pace in the short term due to the impacts of the pandemic and opioid-related deaths. Baby boomers will have significantly increased the number of seniors; children of the baby boom echo generation will be of school-age; and the baby boom echo cohorts, along with a new generation of immigrants, will have boosted the population aged 1564. ontario_mof_population_projections_2021-2046 Income of individuals by age group, sex and income source, Canada This component directly affects population growth only at the census division and regional levels. This trend is projected to continue as the population ages further. Sources: Statistics Canada for 19712020, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections. 1 million to 5 million 500 thousand to 1 million 100 thousand to 500 thousand <100 thousand Canada is divided into 10 provinces and three territories. The gap is widening between this age group and the number of children aged 0 to 14 years, which was 6,018,084 (15.7%). For 2046, the chart shows total population in millions for each of the regions as: Northwest 0.2, Northeast 0.6, Southwest 2.3, Central 4.6, GTA 10.0, East 2.7. The current population of Ontario is 14,223,942. These ratios were then multiplied by provincial age-specific death rates to create death rates for each census division. In 2021, the average age of Canadians was 41.7. Under the low scenario, the total fertility rate is projected to decline initially from 1.30 in 2021-22, but to reach 1.30 again in 2045-46. Download entire table. One census division where natural increase is projected to be positive in 2021-22, but negative by 2035-36: Simcoe. The population of Southwestern Ontario is projected to grow from 1.73million in 2021 to 2.30million in 2046, an increase of 32.8percent. Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance projections. By 2046, Kenora is projected to still have the highest share of children at 19.4percent, while Haliburton is projected to continue to have the lowest at 9.1percent. Modeling and Forecasting the Time Series of U.S. Mortality, Journal of the American Statistical Association 87, no 419 (September):659-71. View the related statistical tables at Ontario's Open Data Catalogue. As a proportion of total population, the corresponding rate was 0.09 percent on average each year. The largest shifts in age structure are projected to take place in census divisions, many in northern and rural areas, where natural increase and net migration are projected to remain or become negative. The annual in-flows corresponding to the long-term net migration levels in the low-growth, reference and high-growth scenarios are 62,500, 65,000 and 67,500 respectively. Nearly 90 percent of immigrants coming to Ontario in 202021 were aged 0 to 44. Immigration levels are projected to reach about 196,000 in Ontario by 2022-23, resulting in an immigration rate of 1.30 percent. Over the historical period, annual growth rates start at 1.5% in 1971-72, and then decline to reach 0.8% in 1980-81. Respondents to the census are able to provide multiple responses for questions relating to knowledge of languages, and mother tongue. To have a better experience, you need to: Learn about Ontarios current demographic situation and outlook through quarterly demographic reports and population projections. 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